In Search Of Amelia Earhart
Last night, the Travel Channel broadcast “In Search Of Amelia Earhart”. Earhart was a famous aviatrix, who during her attempt to fly around the world in 1937, disappeared on her trip to tiny Howland Island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. The show put forth a theory promoted primarily by former pilot Elgen Long, that Earhart ran out of fuel 20 hours and 13 minutes into her flight and crashed into the ocean near Howland Island.
There are numerous logical errors in the show, and some factual errors as well. Naturally, take away to logical errors and the factual errors, and the conclusion that Amelia crashed into the ocean seems somewhat shaky. Given that there were no eye-witnesses, how can anyone be sure it happened 20:13 into the flight?
Amelia’s last known broadcast was 20 hours and 13 minutes into the flight. In that broadcast, she stated that she would re-broadcast her message on another frequency, 6210 kilocycles. But she was never heard from again. Long’s conclusion: the plane ran out of gas right then. Other possible conclusions, unmentioned by Long or the Travel Channel show: radio malfunction, or perhaps Earhart had trouble broadcasting and being receiving on 6210 — in fact, at no time during her flight to Howland was she heard broadcasting on 6210.
But, now that Long knows when Earhart crashed, he then finds a way to calculate her fuel consumption that indicates the plan ran out of fuel at — you guessed it — 20 hours and 13 minutes of air time. The calculations, of course, must be based upon guesswork and assumptions, as there is really no way to know how Amelia flew the plane during her flight to Howland. Even when the famous Chater Report turns up 60 years later, giving some actual broadcast information from Amelia early in that flight, Long makes unjustifiable assumptions. While AE reports wind speeds in the Chater Report, at no time does AE indicate they are headwinds. In fact, they could have been (and most likely were) crosswinds. But Long does the calculations assuming they are headwinds.
One of the most bizarre parts of the show was some calculations done by radio experts that indicate Amelia was following a “ladder search pattern”, when she ran out of fuel, on a heading that would have taken her directly to Howland. This informaton comes from the radio logs of Itasca, the Coast Guard ship stationed at Howland. In those logs, AE is actually heard by Itasca (and transcribed into the logs) on nine different occasions spanning six hours. In some of those transcriptions, a signal strength is recorded. How one can go from a transcript plus signal strength to a determination of heading and search pattern is beyond me. Although the Travel Channel show implies that there was some sophisticated computer-based data analysis going on here, I know something about data analysis too and it seems to me that this is wishful thinking.
Much more information is available about Amelia Earhart at The Earhart Project. There, the hypothesis is promoted that Amelia landed at then uninhabited Gardner (now Nikumaroro) Island, after being unable to find Howland. A skeleton was found (with parts of a woman’s shoe and other Western paraphernalia) in 1940 on Gardner. That plus other circumstantial evidence, indicate (but do not prove) that Gardner Island was Amelia’s final landfall. If true, she died there as a castaway.












